SE-5004L Statistics And Econometrics Essay

This study requires you to compile a sample data for: Savings rates (SR), GDP per capita (GDPPC) and Price inflation (PINF) for a set of 20 countries for one specific year. You need to specify the year and set of countries. You must then go and collect the data.

Sources: Data can be obtained from many places but a convenient source is: Global Competitiveness Report available from the World Economic Forum.

Task:

1. Present your data in a table showing the names of the variables. Make sure the full definitions and sources of each variable are given.

2. The first equation to be estimated is:

SR i = b0 b1 GDPi b2 PINFi ui (1)

where u is a disturbance term and the subscript i represents country.

Answer these questions:

(i) In terms of economic theory what sign would you expect to find for the coefficients in the regression equation?

(ii) It is possible (with a little algebra) to obtain the marginal propensity to consume from this model. Work out an expression for this figure.

(iii) Why is there a constant term in the equation with no variable attached?

SE-5004L Statistics And Econometrics Essay

(iv) Why do these types of equations have a ‘u’ term?

3. Estimate equation (1) by OLS and present the results in a suitable table

(n.b. marks will be lost for simply pasting over the computer output)

(i) Comment on the results for the coefficients on the GDP and PINF variables.

(ii) Comment on the R squared statistic.

(iii) Is the estimated value of b0 positive or negative? Does it matter for the reliability of your estimates for b1andb2whetherb0 is positive or negative?

(iv) Examine the residuals of your estimated equation to determine whether any of your countries is a regression residual.

SE-5004L Statistics And Econometrics Essay

4. Carry out the following hypothesis tests:

(i) b0 = 0 against the two sided alternative at the 1% level

(ii) b1 = 0 against the two sided alternative at the 5% level

(iii) b2 = 0 against the two sided alternative at the 10% level

(iv) b1 = b2 = 0 against the one sided alternative at the 5% level

5. You are now required to estimate the following form of the model using OLS:

SR i = b0 GDPib1PINF b2expu (2)

where u is a classical disturbance term and exp is the value of exponential.

(i) Write down the estimating equation you need to use to estimate (2) by OLS.

(ii)Explain why the disturbance term enters equation (2) in a different form from equation (1)

(iii) What does the coefficient of b2 now represent?

(iv) Explain how the impact of a one unit change in PINF on the savings ratio would be calculated

6. You must now estimate equation (2) Compare your results for equations (1) and (2).

7. You should now write a short report of 450-600 words. This should briefly summarize your findings but most of your answer should consist of further exploration of your data and suggestions for improvement of the model you have estimated. [20 marks]

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